VALID 19Z MON 11/11 - 00Z TUE 12/11 2002
ISSUED: 11/11 20:02Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN BRITISH ISLES

SYNOPSIS

AIR-MASS IS TOO STABLE FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, EXCEPT NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTIC LOW NORTHWEST OF IRELAND /NEAR 59N 13W/. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM INDUCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHERE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR /-35 C AT 500HPA/ CREATES A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION

...NORTHWESTERN BRITISH ISLES...
COLD AIR OVERSPREADS WARM ATLANTIC SURFACE WATERS YIELDING SOME INSTABILITY IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC LOW. SOME STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION MARITIME CONVECTION IN QUITE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

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